In every tournament there are surprising teams that shock the college basketball world with how well they do, but there are also ones that don’t live up to the hype. I have a few teams I’m avoiding when filling out brackets this year.
From ESPN
1. FAU
Last year’s Cinderella darling, the FAU Owls are back in the tourney. However, I don’t have much stock in them. They were on the bubble before the selection and did not even win their conference the American Conference (FAU lost to 11 seed Temple in the semifinals. 4 seed UAB won). The committee did them a disservice giving them too high of a seed. They face a good Northwestern team first round. If they manage to survive the first round, then they are guaranteed to meet up with defending champ UConn. This UConn team is once again special, and FAU sadly stands no chance if they matchup in the second round. Sorry FAU but the odds are not in your favor.
From Alabama Athletics
2. Alabama
A team that peaked this year at #13 in the AP Poll and a possible 3 seed, the Alabama Crimson Tide flamed out at the end of the season. They were the #3 seed in the SEC tournament and got knocked out immediately. They are a high scoring team with little to no defense. We just saw them lose to Florida in ugly fashion twice allowing 105 and 102 points in those losses. They win by a lot and lose by a lot. This team finished the season (last 10 games) with a 5-5 record giving up 85+ points in 8 of those games. Alabama faces another high scoring team in Charleston. Charleston has some tournament experience and while Alabama does too, they are missing their corner piece from last season’s roster, Brandon Miller. Whatever the over is for this game, take it, but be cautious of Alabama because their road to even just the Elite Eight includes teams like Charleston, UNC, Michigan St, St Mary’s and many more.
From Kansas City Star
3. Kansas
Kansas is a blue blood national treasure, but I’m sorry, it is not their year. They have been inconsistent especially on the road with a 3-7 Away record and a 1-3 Away record against ranked opponents. They finished the season (last 10 games) with a 4-6 record. Part of this reason is due to Hunter Dickinson, their star forward, battling injury along with several other key players. They did not pan out in the B12 tournament and I do not see them panning out in the NCAA Tournament either. They will have to face one if not two of my favorite Cinderellas in the first and second round (Samford and possibly McNeese State). Don’t bet on Kansas this March Madness.
Update: Kansas’s star guard Kevin McCullar Jr. Was ruled out for the tournament hurting them even more
From The New York Times
Honorable Mention: 15 and 16 Seeds
While we’ve seen 2 16 seeds win in the past few years (FDU and UMBC) lets all be collectively wise enough to not pick them. The odds of any of the 16 seeds winning are next to zero, and unless you want to screw up your bracket, don’t pick them. However, 15 seeds are more popular and have historically happened more often. Despite this, we are seeing some of the best 2 seeds we have seen in awhile. Many of those same 2 seeds, like Iowa St and Tennessee, could have been 1 seeds. While I’m not completely against picking a 15 seed, I would try and find more value in 10, 11, and 12 seeds like Oregon, NC State, New Mexico, and McNeese State.
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